RISE

Risefall

Elysium Testnet · 99801Simulated launch · Early stage0x4339ab…1d0167verified against replica B (simulated) 19s agoblock 10,228,000

Verifier

On Off

80est. score

staker verdict

WAIT

Market capitalization is $134,602; estimated bar is >= $250,000.
Effective holders is 106; estimated bar is >= 150.

What would change this

Needs +$115,398 (now $134,602, estimated bar $250,000).
Needs +44 (now 106, estimated bar 150).

Estimate based on public Ascend criteria (config 2026.10-estimate.1). Not an official Ascend decision. Digest 5d89cd5d17361743…

Raw holders106

Effective holders106

100% of raw holders are independent

Market cap

$135k

price × (supply − burn)

Organic vol / day

$4.9k

time-weighted, 7d

Top-10 share

43%

Inflated volume

Plain-language summary

RISE is not blocked by a hard rule, but it is not there yet. 106 raw holders resolve to 106 effective holders. Market capitalization is $134,602; estimated bar is >= $250,000. Effective holders is 106; estimated bar is >= 150.

Commentary is advisory. It can downgrade a verdict to WAIT or NO-GO but can never upgrade one; verdicts come from deterministic, versioned rules.

Score breakdown

Every rule, every number.

Thresholds live in a versioned config, are shown here, and are labelled estimates. Hard rules decide No-go on their own.

Rule	Measured	Estimated bar	Status
Market capitalization growth · weight 15%	$135k	>= $250k	Below bar
Effective holders growth · weight 20%	106	>= 150	Below bar
Effective / raw holders integrity · weight 15%	1.00	>= 0.75 hard < 0.50	Pass
Top-10 holder share integrity · weight 10%	42.9%	<= 45.0% hard > 80.0%	Pass
Top-1 holder share integrity · weight 5%	9.9%	<= 10.0% hard > 25.0%	Pass

Holder concentration

Ascend checks for concentrated accumulation.

Top 1

9.9%

Top 5

29.2%

Top 10

42.9%

HHI

0.028

Gini

0.54

Holders

106

1
0xec08…bf45
9.9%
2
0xcc1e…63ad
5.5%
3
0xcc9d…d1f9
4.8%
4
0x1d16…9cb9
4.5%
5
0xd3d1…0f09
4.4%
6
0xf1bf…269d
3.0%
7
0x8769…968b
3.0%
8
0x5967…a9dc
2.7%
9
0x4351…58b8
2.5%
10
0xd531…909e
2.5%

Share of circulating supply. Pool and burn addresses are excluded.

Linked wallets

Wallets whose first funding traces to the same source, merged into effective holders.

Wallets linked by funding source (one operator pattern)Independent holders

Volume per unique wallet

Total volume split into organic and inflated, with volume per effective wallet over time. Time-weighted organic volume: $4.9k per day.

Organic volumeInflated (wash or coordinated wallets)Volume per effective wallet (peak $586)

Evidence

Published findings and receipts.

Open any finding to see the facts it cites and a copy-paste command that reproduces each one from chain state.

Holder concentration

Top-1 holds 9.9%, top-10 hold 42.9% of circulating supply across 106 holders (pool and burn excluded).

concentration@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_cf1b023ec6e013 cited factsdigest e79ecae3c3f9…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,228,000	0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated

Funding-source clusters
No wallet group shares a funding source above the minimum cluster size.
funding-clusters@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_9424baaf79681 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,228,000 0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167) identical simulated
Same-block entry
No synchronized same-block entry batches detected.
same-block-entry@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_2d5b3b0f53f31 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,228,000 0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167) identical simulated
Wash loops and round trips
No round-trip or cyclic wallet flows detected.
wash-loops@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_543feb6c62d61 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,228,000 0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167) identical simulated

Wallet age and activity

12.3% of holders are fresh wallets (≤3 lifetime transactions, funded shortly before first buy).

wallet-age@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_6c6892838f3221 cited factsdigest 09f88f1589a1…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,228,000	0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x03d9ac…41a67d	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x334279…888877	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x6d400d…c472ed	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x7304ce…927499	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x8d9a9e…daf805	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x9fa3fc…3f2ef9	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xa254ae…871687	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xb089e8…0880da	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xb53364…5f8511	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xb6daad…a03417	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xc5a796…894bb2	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xe475e7…b5a63e	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xf4421b…d75624	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x012966…9f73de	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x1d16cf…bf9cb9	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x48049c…fe8df9	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x6f3a71…f1b2cd	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0x9651fb…fa724c	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xcc1e91…a263ad	identical	simulated
nonce	10,228,000	0xe7de60…3aa0a4	identical	simulated

Effective holders
106 raw holders collapse to 106 effective holders after merging linked wallets.
effective-holders@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_c63d7169a6fc1 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,228,000 0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167) identical simulated

Volume per unique wallet

$97,629 traded; 0.0% attributable to wash or coordinated wallets. Time-weighted organic volume: $4,890/day.

volume-per-wallet@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_e6178d85d1d411 cited factsdigest 72b9939a88f2…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,228,000	0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
log	5,565,850	0x33ddb27c…52a101db	identical	simulated
log	4,322,990	0xe0f8d876…f740bb72	identical	simulated
log	7,806,071	0x4c29c46a…43542e0c	identical	simulated
log	4,962,963	0x878cda05…bddc6c78	identical	simulated
log	6,210,983	0x80c3c52c…6ec84536	identical	simulated
log	7,325,356	0xb49711ff…fca01843	identical	simulated
log	6,734,618	0xeb3369c1…36836da1	identical	simulated
log	6,523,196	0x6eafe614…d69bb762	identical	simulated
log	4,422,539	0x7f9aa79a…7bfbb3db	identical	simulated
log	6,976,562	0x272165a4…f90ae90d	identical	simulated

Market capitalization

Median of last 5 swaps prices the token at $0.000136; market cap ≈ $134,602.

market-cap@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_393a4506c7397 cited factsdigest 52be9a8fc69a…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,228,000	0x18160ddd…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
call	10,228,000	0x70a08231…(0x4339…0167)	identical	simulated
log	10,163,833	0x99fb69c5…ffce866b	identical	simulated
log	10,165,859	0xad42f28c…a743366d	identical	simulated
log	10,188,809	0x1af66c00…4076e4d2	identical	simulated
log	10,195,469	0xcb1f119a…a389d38b	identical	simulated
log	10,207,027	0xcb0851fe…de636cf2	identical	simulated

Withheld

Claims we did not publish.

Findings that failed verification are listed openly, with the reason, instead of being quietly dropped.

Nothing withheld. Every finding for this token re-fetched identically.

Back-test

Planted versus found.

The pattern in this mock launch was planted by us, so the answer is known. Ascertain never sees it.

Raw holders

106planted 106

exact match

Effective holders

106planted 106

exact match

Linked groups

0planted 0

exact match

Wash wallets

0planted 0

exact match

Creator view

Lifecycle tracker and revenue planner

See where this token sits across Launch, Ascended, HyperCore spot and HIP-3, what is known and unknown at each stage, and model creator fee revenue and a listing reserve.

Open creator dashboard

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