MIRA

Mirage

Elysium Testnet · 99801Simulated launch · Clustered holders0x080b71…3e9a1everified against replica B (simulated) just nowblock 10,408,000

Verifier

On Off

44partial est.

creator verdict

NO-GO

Hard rule failed: Effective / raw holders is 0.09 (>= 0.75 required; hard limit 0.50).

What would change this

Needs +112 (now 38, estimated bar 150).
Needs +$34,404 (now $5,596, estimated bar $40,000).
Hard rule. Only 0.09 of raw holders are independent. Adding more linked wallets cannot fix this; only genuinely distinct holders can. Bar: 0.75.
Reduce by 13.1 pts (now 58.1%, estimated limit 45.0%).
Reduce by 12.6 pts (now 22.6%, estimated limit 10.0%).
Reduce by 2.9 pts (now 17.9%, estimated limit 15.0%).

Estimate based on public Ascend criteria (config 2026.10-estimate.1). Not an official Ascend decision. Digest 9d2f393f505d5b27…

Raw holders412

Effective holders38

9% of raw holders are independent

Market cap

$314k

price × (supply − burn)

Organic vol / day

$5.6k

time-weighted, 7d

Top-10 share

58%

Inflated volume

18%

Plain-language summary

MIRA fails at least one hard integrity rule. 412 raw holders resolve to 38 effective holders. Hard rule failed: Effective / raw holders is 0.09 (>= 0.75 required; hard limit 0.50).

Commentary is advisory. It can downgrade a verdict to WAIT or NO-GO but can never upgrade one; verdicts come from deterministic, versioned rules.

Score breakdown

Every rule, every number.

Thresholds live in a versioned config, are shown here, and are labelled estimates. Hard rules decide No-go on their own.

Rule	Measured	Estimated bar	Status
Market capitalization growth · weight 15%	$314k	>= $250k	Pass
Effective holders growth · weight 20%	38	>= 150	Below bar
Organic daily volume (time-weighted) growth · weight 15%	$5.6k	>= $40.0k	Below bar
Effective / raw holders integrity · weight 15%	0.09	>= 0.75 hard < 0.50	Hard fail
Top-10 holder share integrity · weight 10%	58.1%	<= 45.0% hard > 80.0%	Below bar
Top-1 holder share integrity · weight 5%	22.6%	<= 10.0% hard > 25.0%	Below bar
Inflated volume share integrity · weight 15%	17.9%	<= 15.0% hard > 35.0%	Below bar
Fresh-wallet share integrity · weight 5%	unverified	<= 35.0% hard > 70.0%	Unverified

Holder concentration

Ascend checks for concentrated accumulation.

Top 1

22.6%

Top 5

45.5%

Top 10

58.1%

HHI

0.073

Gini

0.74

Holders

412

1
0x9b41…469f
22.6%
2
0x7898…eabb
11.2%
3
0x6312…76d3
4.8%
4
0x80c8…fad9
3.5%
5
0xafac…0267
3.5%
6
0x795a…8a7a
3.0%
7
0x719a…53e9
3.0%
8
0x9a23…a9ee
2.9%
9
0x7d68…3d37
1.8%
10
0x4370…d697
1.8%

Share of circulating supply. Pool and burn addresses are excluded.

Linked wallets

Wallets whose first funding traces to the same source, merged into effective holders.

Wallets linked by funding source (one operator pattern)Independent holders

Volume per unique wallet

Total volume split into organic and inflated, with volume per effective wallet over time. Time-weighted organic volume: $5.6k per day.

Organic volumeInflated (wash or coordinated wallets)Volume per effective wallet (peak $888)

Evidence

Published findings and receipts.

Open any finding to see the facts it cites and a copy-paste command that reproduces each one from chain state.

Holder concentration

Top-1 holds 22.6%, top-10 hold 58.1% of circulating supply across 412 holders (pool and burn excluded).

concentration@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_e4b3d6488bd513 cited factsdigest 40567c64db3c…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated

Funding-source clusters

378 wallets fall into 4 groups linked by a shared funding source within 2 hops.

funding-clusters@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_981a7c29ebf414 cited factsdigest a728c361a8d5…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
tx	5,611,992	0xece40065…42fe4594	identical	simulated
tx	5,185,768	0x82993eb0…a05fe5bb	identical	simulated
tx	6,038,670	0x4e9a7255…bd73708f	identical	simulated
tx	5,211,685	0x5cfdbe4d…1b5c67c8	identical	simulated
tx	4,749,254	0x8a01948f…98a25d54	identical	simulated
tx	5,195,489	0xae9ed344…2eaa8031	identical	simulated
tx	4,749,254	0xe07869e1…2e32375b	identical	simulated
tx	6,785,359	0x9524b13f…6ef2a3bf	identical	simulated
tx	5,146,901	0x25e6043e…3508911a	identical	simulated
tx	6,308,160	0xa9142563…a48dd425	identical	simulated
tx	5,951,107	0xef5ee161…4bacac22	identical	simulated
tx	5,517,342	0xb6507e53…bb2acdcf	identical	simulated
tx	7,448,350	0x6ac3e539…ef0436ad	identical	simulated

Same-block entry

378 wallets entered in 28 synchronized batches (≥5 wallets, same block, near-identical size).

same-block-entry@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_91257e2614a824 cited factsdigest ca6936bd63ef…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
log	5,224,223	0x2b044626…29dff35c	identical	simulated
log	5,224,223	0x5f43bd0e…15b7a359	identical	simulated
log	5,567,479	0xc35b3853…6a08af20	identical	simulated
log	5,567,479	0xadd76baf…0b521c44	identical	simulated
log	5,626,009	0xf4649613…6b589909	identical	simulated
log	5,626,009	0xcbf97955…13928480	identical	simulated
log	5,640,331	0x5d699f5d…7074005c	identical	simulated
log	5,640,331	0x17872d33…a246bc79	identical	simulated
log	5,729,104	0xa0c5a733…6d3c12d9	identical	simulated
log	5,729,104	0x8e2a0ae4…39f4003c	identical	simulated
log	5,837,290	0x735c1dd6…52a2826e	identical	simulated
log	5,837,290	0x3fb2b19e…2774ba67	identical	simulated
log	5,967,405	0x56eb3658…4a7dc753	identical	simulated
log	5,967,405	0xddc21e9d…d0d5cfdd	identical	simulated
log	6,017,339	0x6c9e98f0…06fdabb8	identical	simulated
log	6,017,339	0xf430f8d9…aac22085	identical	simulated
log	6,058,358	0xb3192a19…5c47b0ae	identical	simulated
log	6,058,358	0xb65fe548…0d6a4810	identical	simulated
log	6,060,648	0x2a9dd030…35210301	identical	simulated
log	6,060,648	0x7df2af79…9c08e2d0	identical	simulated
log	6,149,623	0x2caa974b…c8b2a447	identical	simulated
log	6,149,623	0x59ade72c…07aaa287	identical	simulated
log	6,150,204	0x493aac4d…c489a1c3	identical	simulated

Wash loops and round trips
No round-trip or cyclic wallet flows detected.
wash-loops@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_5fef0f3019131 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,408,000 0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e) identical simulated

Effective holders

412 raw holders collapse to 38 effective holders after merging linked wallets.

effective-holders@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_a734894d071d13 cited factsdigest 8229a2eaacaf…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
tx	5,611,992	0xece40065…42fe4594	identical	simulated
tx	5,185,768	0x82993eb0…a05fe5bb	identical	simulated
tx	6,038,670	0x4e9a7255…bd73708f	identical	simulated
tx	5,211,685	0x5cfdbe4d…1b5c67c8	identical	simulated
tx	4,749,254	0x8a01948f…98a25d54	identical	simulated
tx	5,195,489	0xae9ed344…2eaa8031	identical	simulated
tx	4,749,254	0xe07869e1…2e32375b	identical	simulated
log	5,224,223	0x2b044626…29dff35c	identical	simulated
log	5,224,223	0x5f43bd0e…15b7a359	identical	simulated
log	5,567,479	0xc35b3853…6a08af20	identical	simulated
log	5,567,479	0xadd76baf…0b521c44	identical	simulated
log	5,626,009	0xf4649613…6b589909	identical	simulated

Volume per unique wallet

$124,923 traded; 17.9% attributable to wash or coordinated wallets. Time-weighted organic volume: $5,596/day.

volume-per-wallet@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_e914128321a511 cited factsdigest c1544e57b9de…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
log	6,522,299	0x4567e078…a7c873ae	identical	simulated
log	7,728,352	0x550325f1…366f297a	identical	simulated
log	8,879,334	0x3942819b…a1707930	identical	simulated
log	5,694,441	0x6fa69120…adea1112	identical	simulated
log	10,184,465	0xa9dbbe43…7e806801	identical	simulated
log	8,451,119	0x2575e342…5fda91a4	identical	simulated
log	9,206,675	0x21bee56b…0bdc06a5	identical	simulated
log	8,452,149	0x0e5460ef…af5f5379	identical	simulated
log	5,652,571	0x5d11b89a…64b5b5d4	identical	simulated
log	9,536,756	0x34cdd830…bb7987a1	identical	simulated

Market capitalization

Median of last 5 swaps prices the token at $0.000317; market cap ≈ $313,916.

market-cap@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_9fc3ef4c13647 cited factsdigest 99c4e4c42859…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
call	10,408,000	0x70a08231…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
log	10,184,465	0xa9dbbe43…7e806801	identical	simulated
log	10,190,019	0x3589d3e6…c26ae43b	identical	simulated
log	10,193,873	0x3c9a7295…be8062e1	identical	simulated
log	10,231,006	0xae598cf2…fb117c6e	identical	simulated
log	10,404,691	0x2714b7e1…5ce1e1a4	identical	simulated

Withheld

Claims we did not publish.

Findings that failed verification are listed openly, with the reason, instead of being quietly dropped.

Wallet age and activity

91.7% of holders are fresh wallets (≤3 lifetime transactions, funded shortly before first buy).

wallet-age@1.0.0withheld

Withheld. 3 of 24 cited facts did not re-fetch identically. First mismatch: nonce(0x00eeda1d…)@10408000 — indexer 0x3 vs verifier 0x2. Likely stale indexer cache or a reorg; the claim is withheld until it re-indexes.

Finding fnd_52cff80a732924 cited factsdigest 38a07cf40fbd…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,408,000	0x18160ddd…(0x080b…9a1e)	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x00eeda…118304	mismatch	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x125be5…094d79	mismatch	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x1f0e2f…3c257f	mismatch	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x2cc746…0547aa	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x3d9afb…99b05d	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x4bb66c…e35d98	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x5cfad2…a96d30	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x6e7cee…e923bc	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x8634e8…bb57a7	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x961ce2…aadb05	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xa0d345…c888c2	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xabd512…178557	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xbf2dd1…9f3117	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xce20a5…464dac	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xdafb19…6465a2	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xedf21e…3c12b8	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x09f0ee…e28e64	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x1cca75…f0cfb3	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x631216…5276d3	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x791188…e7bdfb	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x80c879…09fad9	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0x9a23d0…c3a9ee	identical	simulated
nonce	10,408,000	0xaefd13…0addc1	identical	simulated

Back-test

Planted versus found.

The pattern in this mock launch was planted by us, so the answer is known. Ascertain never sees it.

Raw holders

412planted 412

exact match

Effective holders

38planted 38

exact match

Linked groups

4planted 4

exact match

Wash wallets

0planted 0

exact match

Injected for demonstration: Indexer cached outdated transaction counts for 3 wallets (still classed fresh, but the receipts no longer match chain state).

Creator view

Lifecycle tracker and revenue planner

See where this token sits across Launch, Ascended, HyperCore spot and HIP-3, what is known and unknown at each stage, and model creator fee revenue and a listing reserve.

Open creator dashboard

Verified badge

<a href="https://ascertain.vercel.app/token/MIRA">
  <img src="https://ascertain.vercel.app/api/badge/MIRA.svg" alt="Ascertain verdict" />
</a>

The badge turns stale-gray automatically when its data is older than the limit (6h by default, override with ?maxAge= seconds).