HOLD

Holdfast

Elysium Testnet · 99801Simulated launch · Concentrated supply0xdc7d90…b760b4verified against replica B (simulated) 48s agoblock 10,288,000

Verifier

On Off

57partial est.

trader verdict

NO-GO

Hard rule failed: Top-10 holder share is 88.7% (<= 45.0% required; hard limit 80.0%).
Hard rule failed: Top-1 holder share is 34.0% (<= 10.0% required; hard limit 25.0%).

What would change this

Hard rule. Reduce by 43.7 pts (now 88.7%, estimated limit 45.0%).
Hard rule. Reduce by 24.0 pts (now 34.0%, estimated limit 10.0%).

Estimate based on public Ascend criteria (config 2026.10-estimate.1). Not an official Ascend decision. Digest 0f2a89db19ca5485…

Raw holders89

Effective holders89

100% of raw holders are independent

Market cap

$387k

price × (supply − burn)

Organic vol / day

n/a

time-weighted, 7d

Top-10 share

89%

Inflated volume

n/a

Plain-language summary

HOLD fails at least one hard integrity rule. 89 raw holders resolve to 89 effective holders. Hard rule failed: Top-10 holder share is 88.7% (<= 45.0% required; hard limit 80.0%). Hard rule failed: Top-1 holder share is 34.0% (<= 10.0% required; hard limit 25.0%).

Commentary is advisory. It can downgrade a verdict to WAIT or NO-GO but can never upgrade one; verdicts come from deterministic, versioned rules.

Score breakdown

Every rule, every number.

Thresholds live in a versioned config, are shown here, and are labelled estimates. Hard rules decide No-go on their own.

Rule	Measured	Estimated bar	Status
Organic daily volume (time-weighted) growth · weight 15%	unverified	>= $40.0k	Unverified
Effective / raw holders integrity · weight 15%	1.00	>= 0.75 hard < 0.50	Pass
Top-10 holder share integrity · weight 10%	88.7%	<= 45.0% hard > 80.0%	Hard fail
Top-1 holder share integrity · weight 5%	34.0%	<= 10.0% hard > 25.0%	Hard fail
Inflated volume share integrity · weight 15%	unverified	<= 15.0% hard > 35.0%	Unverified
Fresh-wallet share integrity · weight 5%	3.4%	<= 35.0% hard > 70.0%	Pass

Holder concentration

Ascend checks for concentrated accumulation.

Top 1

34.0%

Top 5

79.0%

Top 10

88.7%

HHI

0.175

Gini

0.88

Holders

1
0x1708…aad0
34.0%
2
0xf4df…8616
17.0%
3
0xc722…d5c3
12.0%
4
0xb292…36e0
9.0%
5
0xdae5…f36a
7.0%
6
0x0975…5cda
4.0%
7
0x3ea9…7d52
3.0%
8
0x9182…dee9
1.1%
9
0x327c…9278
0.9%
10
0x995a…05db
0.8%

Share of circulating supply. Pool and burn addresses are excluded.

Linked wallets

Wallets whose first funding traces to the same source, merged into effective holders.

Wallets linked by funding source (one operator pattern)Independent holders

Volume per unique wallet

Total volume split into organic and inflated, with volume per effective wallet over time.

The volume finding is not published (withheld or verifier off), so nothing is shown rather than an unverified number.

Evidence

Published findings and receipts.

Open any finding to see the facts it cites and a copy-paste command that reproduces each one from chain state.

Holder concentration

Top-1 holds 34.0%, top-10 hold 88.7% of circulating supply across 89 holders (pool and burn excluded).

concentration@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_38db820313de13 cited factsdigest 2d7f42405539…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,288,000	0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated

Funding-source clusters
No wallet group shares a funding source above the minimum cluster size.
funding-clusters@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_7dc029c2573c1 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,288,000 0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4) identical simulated
Same-block entry
No synchronized same-block entry batches detected.
same-block-entry@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_7b175ef5f3701 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,288,000 0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4) identical simulated
Wash loops and round trips
No round-trip or cyclic wallet flows detected.
wash-loops@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_68c5215edca31 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,288,000 0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4) identical simulated

Wallet age and activity

3.4% of holders are fresh wallets (≤3 lifetime transactions, funded shortly before first buy).

wallet-age@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_d9a612960e4211 cited factsdigest 958ae140a96d…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,288,000	0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x092498…018470	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x4d3558…fba5fa	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0xdab5a5…35d2b4	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x010b53…308efb	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x194d3c…7839f2	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x4696cf…c8e511	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x693e25…cd97cf	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0x9ef873…e1b026	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0xba0074…05a259	identical	simulated
nonce	10,288,000	0xe67199…aedc14	identical	simulated

Effective holders
89 raw holders collapse to 89 effective holders after merging linked wallets.
effective-holders@1.0.0published
Finding fnd_8f28b4ae0d5c1 cited factsdigest 40c2f91b801c…JSON
Fact Block Reference Re-fetched
call 10,288,000 0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4) identical simulated

Market capitalization

Median of last 5 swaps prices the token at $0.000391; market cap ≈ $387,324.

market-cap@1.0.0published

Finding fnd_a218ed601ea97 cited factsdigest 1bb0f938bcba…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,288,000	0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
call	10,288,000	0x70a08231…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
log	10,283,509	0x66e2461f…1df46263	identical	simulated
log	10,284,123	0x34081de0…439c741e	identical	simulated
log	10,285,661	0x49058bd4…27c0a3e8	identical	simulated
log	10,285,872	0xd6dc2164…258ffe96	identical	simulated
log	10,285,927	0x981f1a99…8280c27c	identical	simulated

Withheld

Claims we did not publish.

Findings that failed verification are listed openly, with the reason, instead of being quietly dropped.

Volume per unique wallet

$121,500 traded; 0.0% attributable to wash or coordinated wallets. Time-weighted organic volume: $1,812/day.

volume-per-wallet@1.0.0withheld

Withheld. 2 of 11 cited facts did not re-fetch identically. First mismatch: log 0x9c6870045e… — indexer log|99801|4682360|0x9c6870045edaeabb62d2b5ca91bebef8e57d282578b75f… vs verifier log|99801|4682360|0x9c6870045edaeabb62d2b5ca91bebef8e57d282578b75f…. Likely stale indexer cache or a reorg; the claim is withheld until it re-indexes.

Finding fnd_a055690f299f11 cited factsdigest df72eff05daf…JSON

Fact	Block	Reference	Re-fetched
call	10,288,000	0x18160ddd…(0xdc7d…60b4)	identical	simulated
log	4,682,360	0x9c687004…f0b62586	mismatch	simulated
log	5,161,962	0xdd694629…d9a0cd8b	mismatch	simulated
log	4,502,235	0xf72d581a…acf5cd1c	identical	simulated
log	5,270,810	0xe0a3a9fe…9f079227	identical	simulated
log	5,118,445	0xa070d187…b0042393	identical	simulated
log	4,588,720	0x5b53e0b7…b5de90cb	identical	simulated
log	6,367,413	0xdb1b29f5…04203055	identical	simulated
log	4,353,882	0xa517b591…fb421730	identical	simulated
log	6,813,707	0xa91a4652…73a69e05	identical	simulated
log	4,643,395	0xbd930379…a178b1e4	identical	simulated

Back-test

Planted versus found.

The pattern in this mock launch was planted by us, so the answer is known. Ascertain never sees it.

Raw holders

89planted 89

exact match

Effective holders

89planted 89

exact match

Linked groups

0planted 0

exact match

Wash wallets

0planted 0

exact match

Injected for demonstration: Indexer stored slightly different amounts for the two largest swaps than the chain returns.

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